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National Weather Service

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 12Z Mon May 11 2026 - 12Z Wed May 13 2026

...There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast on Monday...

... There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast on Monday...

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains will move south and eastward to the Central Florida peninsula by Tuesday evening. The boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Western Gulf Coast and rain showers over parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The showers and thunderstorms will retreat to the Southeast by Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rain will develop over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. On Tuesday, the showers and thunderstorms retreat to the Southeast.

Meanwhile, a front over the Northern Intermountain Region into the Great Basin moves eastward to the Great Lakes by Tuesday evening. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Plains on Monday evening, then move into the Ohio Valley and the Middle Mississippi Valleys by Tuesday evening. Rain will develop over parts of the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. Furthermore, the western third of the country will be relatively quiet.

Ziegenfelder